Gibraltar published the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 as Legal Notice LN.2026/176 on 13 July 2026. The Regulations are subsidiary legislation and regulation 2 brings them into operation on the day of publication. A second instrument, the Prediction Market (Fees and Duties) Regulations 2026, followed as LN.2026/316 on 13 August 2026. Both are made law rather than proposals, so the authorisation route is open.
The Regulations are made under sections 34 and 159 of the Gambling Act 2025. Regulation 3(1) defines a prediction market contract as a contract, arrangement or instrument whose value, return, payment or settlement is determined by reference to the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event, or to a value or change in value of an index, measure, statistic, result or outcome connected with such an event, and defines a prediction market as a system, platform or arrangement which facilitates the making, trading or settlement of those contracts. Regulation 6(1) provides that a person must not operate a prediction market in or from Gibraltar unless the person is an authorised operator. Regulation 5(1) exempts authorised operators on the register from the general prohibition in section 26 of the Act.
Operators of event contract venues that previously sat between gambling licensing and financial services authorisation now have a named status to hold. Regulation 22(1) states that nothing prevents an authorised operator from using digital asset payments, including stablecoins, for funding participant accounts, collateral, settlement and payments or withdrawals, and regulation 22(2) provides that such use does not by itself change the legal character of a prediction market contract. Payment processors and custody providers serving these venues can price Gibraltar work against a settled rule rather than an assumption.
Regulation 6(6) excludes Part 4 licence holders and certain persons falling under regulation 33(2) from the operating prohibition. Regulation 13(3) requires settlement sources to be reliable, transparent, verifiable and, as far as practicable, resistant to manipulation. Regulation 14(1) lets the Gambling Authority prohibit or restrict a class of contract by direction where it conflicts with the regulatory objectives or the public interest, and regulation 14(2) lists the matters the Authority may weigh, among them criminal conduct, death, serious injury or terrorism, and the occurrence of war or armed conflict. The Regulations set no fixed list of banned event types.
Licentium advises operators, payment providers and investors on event contract and gambling authorisation in Gibraltar and other jurisdictions. Work we undertake includes authorisation applications under the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, contract design and settlement source review against regulation 13, digital asset payment structuring under regulation 22, and regulatory risk assessment for cross border distribution.
Source: Prediction Market Regulations 2026, LN.2026/176, Laws of Gibraltar