CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Proposed Prediction Markets Regulations, United States, March 2026

On March 12, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) on prediction markets, designated CFTC Press Release No. 9194-26. The ANPR initiates a formal public comment process under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) to gather information on whether and how the CFTC should exercise its authority under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), 7 U.S.C. 1 et seq., to regulate event contracts, including political event contracts and other prediction market products. The ANPR does not itself propose specific regulatory text; it requests public input on which the CFTC will base any subsequent proposed rule.

The CFTC's authority over prediction markets derives from CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C), which governs contracts involving activities that are unlawful under federal or state law or contrary to the public interest. The CFTC's existing regulations at 17 C.F.R. 40.11 set out a framework for designated contract markets (DCMs) to list event contracts, subject to CFTC review. The ANPR seeks comment on whether these existing regulations are adequate, whether additional safeguards are required, and whether political event contracts -- contracts whose payout depends on the outcome of a government election or official action -- should be treated differently from other event contracts.

CFTC-regulated exchanges currently operating prediction market products, and entities seeking to list event contracts, must monitor the ANPR process and consider submitting comments. The comment period represents the primary opportunity for market participants to influence how the CFTC structures any new regulatory requirements. Operators of prediction markets, technology platforms enabling event contract trading, and intermediaries facilitating access to these products should evaluate their current product structures against the issues raised in the ANPR and assess whether their existing CEA compliance programs require adjustment.

The ANPR does not establish any new compliance obligations and does not modify the existing 17 C.F.R. 40.11 framework. No final rule can result until the CFTC completes the APA notice-and-comment process: the ANPR is followed by a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM), a further comment period, and CFTC review and adoption of a final rule. The timeline is not specified. Pending any new rule, CFTC-registered DCMs must continue to comply with existing event contract listing requirements and review procedures under the CEA and CFTC regulations.

We advise clients on CFTC regulatory compliance, event contract product structuring, and ANPR comment submission strategy. Our partner network includes counsel with expertise in commodity exchange regulation, designated contract market operations, and prediction market legal analysis. We invite you to contact us to discuss your comment filing options or compliance assessment needs. Our work in this area covers: ANPR comment drafting and regulatory strategy, CFTC DCM registration and self-certification procedures, CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C) event contract analysis, prediction market product legal review, and commodity exchange compliance program design.

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Press Release No. 9194-26, CFTC Issues Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, March 12, 2026. Available at: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26. Confirmed March 25, 2026.

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